Target: ₹390
CMP: ₹340
NTPC reported revenue of ₹49,800 crore (5 per cent y-o-y/5 per cent JMFe) due to 2 per cent y-o-y growth in generation and higher realisations (₹5.2 per unit vs. ₹5.1 per unit in Q4-FY24). The EBITDA came in at ₹14,800 crore (4 per cent y-o-y/ 4 per cent JMFe) driven by growth in topline. Adj. PAT for the quarter was ₹5,600 crore (-16 per cent t-o-t/ -4 per cent JMFe) due to increase in finance cost (23 per cent) and increase in effective tax rate to 33 per cent vs 20 per cent in Q4-FY24.
NTPC has guided for capacity addition of 11,806 MW (3,518 MW Thermal, 1,000 MW Hydro, 7,226 MW RE)/ 9,904 MW (1,460 MW Thermal, 444 MW Hydro, 8,000 MW RE) in FY26/ FY27. Average tariff in FY25 stood at ₹4.7 per unit vs. ₹4.61 per unit in FY24. In Q4-FY25, coal demand of NTPC was completely met by domestic coal supplies (68 MT, 6 per cent y-o-y)
Acknowledging the huge efforts made by management in recent years to diversify its portfolio (thermal, hydro, nuclear and RE) which seems palpable now, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised TP of ₹390 (earlier TP of ₹359) valuing at 2.3x Mar’27 Regulated Equity for thermal business and valuing RE business on current Mcap of NGEL.
Published on May 28, 2025
